With travel being rerouted around rising fuel costs and airspace disruptions, a recent Visa report sheds insights on travel diversions that are already happening, or that could happen, with implications on APAC inbound and outbound trends.
Diversion of Indian outbound spend to Asia
With Asia Pacific travellers shifting plans away from EMEA this year, the Visa Business and Economic Insights published in April says the largest markets seeking new destinations for travel spend are India, Australia, Mainland China and Hong Kong.
Visa’s data already reflects redistribution of travel spend. The share of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies benefitting from Indian outbound spend fell by 21 percentage points in March 2026 relative to January-February combined, as airspace closures and risk aversion increased.
Around half of this spend was redistributed to Japan, Singapore, Thailand, China (including Hong Kong) and Vietnam. There was also a strong diversion of spend into North America.
GCC economies' share of Indian outbound spell fell by 21 percentage points in March. Photo Credit: Freepik
Alternate airline hubs
Middle Eastern airlines carried one-quarter to one-half of passengers between Asia Pacific and Europe in 2025, depending on the market. With much of that capacity removed, and safety concerns rising, the number of alternative airline hubs is growing, Visa observes.
In Australia, searches for airlines such as Cathay Pacific or Singapore Airlines are up by more than 50% as flyers look for alternative hubs to get to Europe.
Airlines that are still flying over Russian airspace, such as those from India and Mainland China, already benefitting from shorter flights and lower fuel costs, are likely to gain market share.
Meanwhile, North American voyagers can look to Tokyo, Seoul and Taipei as hubs to get to India or Southeast Asia.
Visa research suggests that buying intention is shifting towards comparison shopping, insurance and flexible ticketing.
Capturing displaced demand for EMEA holidays
In 2025, EMEA captured a 30% share of outbound travel spending from Mainland China, India, Australia and Hong Kong markets.
As higher fares and longer routings encourage substitution away from transcontinental travel, Visa predicts that Thailand is well placed to capture incremental shorthaul demand, as well as travelers rerouting away from more expensive longhaul beach and urban destinations.
“Australians reconsidering winter trips to Mediterranean beach destinations or Indian travelers re-evaluating city breaks in Dubai could be enticed toward Thailand instead – provided the right mix of targeted marketing, pricing offers and differentiated product propositions,” Simon Baptist, the report’s author and Visa’s principal Asia Pacific Economist, stated.
Making up for lost EMEA feeders
A similar approach applies to EMEA outbound demand. To make up for lost demand coming out of EMEA, Visa suggests that in-destination merchants must check boxes of both geography and “customer archetype”.
In the Maldives and Sri Lanka, where more than 50% of tourist spend in 2025 came from cards issued in EMEA, tourism-dependent businesses are having to find new customers.
For Thailand, Indonesia and India, that share was also significant, coming up to more than 30%.
“Opportunity will not mechanically follow from geography: it will likely be found in particular customer archetypes. Airlines, hotels and other merchants may need to adapt specific marketing, activation and offer strategies: a closer look at specific corridors suggests what these archetypes could be,” Baptist shared.
For instance, Thai beach destinations could make up for lost EMEA demand by attracting Australians who would otherwise head for a southern European winter getaway.
Visa suggests that retailers in Singapore, Tokyo and Shanghai could look to convert Indians previously shopping in Dubai, or Mainland Chinese in Paris.